Brazil – Voters in the municipalities that cleared the most Amazon rainforest over the past decade gave the strongest support to far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro in the Oct. 4 first-round presidential election. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva placed second overall, setting up a runoff on Oct. 25. The pattern emerged from an analysis that matched official election returns with satellite deforestation records. ([1])
Clear Results in Cleared Forests
Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, captured the most votes in eight of the ten Amazon municipalities with the highest deforestation totals since 2015. The comparison drew on data from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research. Lula prevailed in the remaining two municipalities. The outcome highlights how the areas experiencing the fastest forest loss aligned with one candidate’s base. The same municipalities have long been tied to land-clearing activities. One of them, Novo Progresso in Pará state, recorded 84 percent support for Flávio Bolsonaro. That town gained attention in 2019 for the coordinated “Day of Fire,” when residents set hundreds of blazes. Another, Altamira, delivered 63 percent of its votes to the same candidate after the Lula administration blacklisted more than 500 farms there for illegal clearing last year.
Timeline of Forest Loss and Policy Shifts
Deforestation rates rose sharply during Jair Bolsonaro’s term. After Lula returned to office in 2023, enforcement measures contributed to a decline that began in August 2025 and reached the lowest levels in more than a decade. The drop occurred even as political tensions remained high. Jair Bolsonaro himself remains barred from public office following a conviction related to coup planning. These policy swings directly affect landholders, enforcement agencies, and Indigenous communities across the nine-state Amazon region. Municipalities that expanded pasture and soy frontiers most aggressively now face the prospect of continued or tightened oversight depending on the runoff outcome. Local economies built around ranching and logging stand to gain or lose from any change in federal priorities.
Stakeholders Watching the Runoff
The Oct. 25 vote will decide whether the current administration’s enforcement approach continues or shifts toward the approach favored during the prior term. Farmers operating on the forest frontier, environmental agencies, and international buyers of Brazilian commodities all have direct interests in the result. The eight municipalities that backed Flávio Bolsonaro represent a concentrated bloc where land-use decisions have already reshaped large stretches of forest. A short list of immediate factors to watch includes federal funding for enforcement teams, updates to the rural properties registry, and any new restrictions on credit for properties linked to illegal clearing. Each of these elements can alter the pace of forest loss within months of the final tally. The runoff therefore carries concrete consequences for the pace of change in the world’s largest rainforest and for the communities whose livelihoods depend on its current boundaries.
