Something genuinely historic is happening at the border between Canada and the United States. Canadians, who for decades were America’s most reliable and largest source of international visitors, are staying away in numbers that have rattled the U.S. tourism industry to its core. This is not a seasonal dip or a post-pandemic blip. By every measure available – road crossings, air arrivals, hotel bookings, airline seat capacity – the retreat is consistent, deepening, and showing no signs of reversing in 2026.
The Numbers Tell a Brutal Story
Statistics Canada reported that Canadian trips to the United States experienced a drop of 25.4% throughout 2025 when compared to the previous year. That single figure represents millions of lost visits, billions in lost spending, and a fundamental reshaping of cross-border travel that analysts had never seen coming on this scale. This downward trend showed no signs of abating as the calendar turned, with air travel specifically falling by nearly 19% in December 2025 alone.
Statistics Canada stated that an even sharper decline of 31.5% was observed when comparing Canadian resident travel to the U.S. from February 2024 with February 2026. To put the sustained nature of this decline in perspective, Canadian travel to the U.S. has declined for 13 consecutive months, with car and air trips both dropping significantly. As Amir Eylon, President and CEO of Longwoods International, told Forbes: “Tourism boycotts do come up over one issue or another, but in my 37 years in the travel industry, I have never seen anything like what the Canadians have pulled off.”
Why Canadians Stopped Going South
In the context of the 2025 United States trade war with Canada and Mexico, a boycott of the United States began in Canada, including both American consumer products and travel to the U.S. The political triggers were swift and significant. The boycott received support from Canadian politicians, notably with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on February 1, 2025, calling on Canadians to “choose Canadian products and services rather than American ones” wherever possible, while Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly also suggested canceling or avoiding travel to the U.S.
Respondents’ top reasons for avoiding the country were a resolve to stand up for Canada, America’s current political climate, and concerns about heightened security at the border during Trump’s immigration crackdown. Beyond political sentiment, practical barriers piled up fast. The Trump administration’s new registration requirement for long-stay travelers became another deterrent – the rule mandated that certain foreigners, including Canadians, staying longer than 29 days in the United States must register with the U.S. government, and those who register at the land border are photographed, fingerprinted, and charged $30 each.
The Economic Hit on American Communities
The U.S. tourism industry is projecting a $5.7 billion loss in 2025-26, “driven by a sustained, politically motivated boycott by Canadian travelers following trade tensions and tariffs.” Border states have felt the pain most acutely. In Montana, Canadians accounted for nearly 80% of international visitors in 2024 and contributed $170 million to the state’s economy – but in 2025, border crossings were down 19% in the first 10 months of the year.
In New Hampshire, officials reported a 30% decrease in Canadian visitors, and reservations for state-run campgrounds were down 71% in the first five months of 2025. Las Vegas, long a favorite among Canadian tourists, was especially hard hit. Preliminary data shows Las Vegas visits by Canadians declined by approximately 20% in 2025 from 1.4 million visitors in 2024, while airline capacity between Las Vegas and Canada is down by approximately 35%, to its lowest level since 2006.
Airlines Are Voting With Their Routes
The travel boycott has forced Canadian airlines into dramatic strategic pivots that would have been unthinkable just two years ago. Air Transat confirmed it would suspend all scheduled passenger flights to the United States beginning spring 2026, marking a full withdrawal from the transborder market for the 2026 summer season – a decision that reflects a broader realignment of network priorities. Consulting firm Ailevon Pacific flagged that Air Transat had removed its last three U.S. routes from future schedules, effectively ending its presence in the country, which saw nine U.S. routes as recently as March 2025.
WestJet Airlines announced on May 6, 2025, the suspension of nine U.S. routes due to a significant drop in Canadian travel demand, influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs. Meanwhile, the same carriers are investing heavily in other directions. WestJet increased domestic flights as well as services to Europe “to help Canadians fly where they want to go,” and recently announced new flights to Europe from Halifax, including service to Paris, Amsterdam, and Barcelona. Air Canada is expanding flights to Mexico, while Air Transat is suspending all U.S. flights for summer 2026.
Mexico and the Caribbean Are the Big Winners
While America loses, other destinations are gaining enormously. Mexico has emerged as perhaps the single biggest beneficiary of Canada’s redirected travel spending. Mexico is seeing an unprecedented boom in Canadian tourism, with data published by the Mexico Secretary of Tourism showing an 11.8% spike in Canadian residents flying to the country in the first two months of 2025 from a year earlier. Toronto-Cancún is now Mexico’s busiest international route, with Canadian flights to Mexico up 26.1% from 2024 figures.
The Caribbean has joined Mexico in reaping a windfall. Skyscanner’s 2026 Canada Travel Trends Report confirms Saint Kitts up 170% and Saint Lucia up 160% in Canadian searches. Turks and Caicos is up 350%, and Saint Lucia is up 116% year-over-year, according to Flight Centre Canada. Bermuda expects a 20% boost in Canadian tourism revenue, and all-inclusive operators across the region are reporting some of their strongest Canadian booking seasons in years.
Europe and Japan Step Into the Spotlight
For Canadians willing to travel further, Europe and Japan have become the prestige alternatives to the American vacation. Europe now ranks as the top international choice for Canadians, with 25% naming it their number one destination for 2026, according to Flight Centre’s national survey. Canadian vacation rental bookings in Europe are up 32% this summer compared to last year. The destinations leading that surge are sometimes surprising – Lyon, France, is up 99% in Canadian searches, while Portugal’s Azores tops Skyscanner’s trending list with a 209% spike.
Japan has captured a particular wave of enthusiasm. Travel by Canadians to Japan increased by 29.7% between January and April 2025, compared with the same period last year, according to data from the Japan National Tourism Organization. Flight Centre data shows Japan up 88% as a Canadian destination, with viral comparisons showing the budget tradeoff of a Tokyo family trip – including a day at Tokyo Disneyland – as costing less than a week at Disney World in Orlando. Canadian trips to other international destinations increased 7.2% year-over-year, suggesting that Canadians are still packing their vacation bags – but for Europe, Asia, and the Caribbean rather than the U.S.
