If you’ve started pricing flights for Thanksgiving or Christmas, you’ve probably already felt the sting. Fares for this holiday season are running well above last year’s, and several travel analysts say the cheap seats won’t last long. The most common deadline from forecasters is Halloween, with some advisers pushing for mid-October.
Here’s what the data from Hopper, Google Flights, The Points Guy and others says about prices, timing and the days that cost the least. The research doesn’t agree on everything, so I’ve flagged where it differs.
How Much Higher Holiday Fares Are This Year
According to Hopper’s 2026 Seasonal Travel Index, a round-trip domestic ticket for Thanksgiving will average $402, which is about $95 more than last year.[1] For Christmas, the average price rises to $452 for a round trip, a 23% year-over-year increase, or roughly $85 more per ticket.[1] That’s a big jump for families buying several seats.
Other datasets point the same way, though the exact numbers differ. An August analysis from InsideFlyer, citing Points Path data, found domestic Thanksgiving fares about 13% higher than the previous year, Christmas and New Year’s domestic fares about 18% higher, and international holiday fares about 19% higher.[2] Different datasets and travel dates produce different averages[2], so treat each figure as a direction, not a promise of what you’ll pay.
Why Prices Are Climbing
Fuel costs are one commonly cited factor. One recent report says higher jet fuel costs pushed some summer prices as much as 27 percent above the prior year.[3] The same report adds that elevated fuel prices, already higher baseline fares, and uncertainty around global events have altered the usual booking pattern.[3]
Last year’s pattern also matters. The Points Guy notes that in 2025, Christmas and New Year fares “started high and stayed high,” and waiting delivered little or no saving.[4] That history is part of why advisers are cautious this year. I’d note that these explanations come from travel-industry commentary, not a single definitive study of airline pricing.
The Deadline Most Experts Point To
For Christmas, the clearest consensus is Halloween. The Points Guy generally recommends booking Thanksgiving flights in early to mid-October and Christmas airfare by Halloween for the cheapest domestic trips.[5] Hopper likewise advises booking flights and hotels before Halloween, since prices typically rise closer to the holidays.[1]
Some advisers are stricter. One travel adviser quoted by HuffPost tells clients to book by mid-October, ideally by Oct. 15, for holiday travel.[6] If you want one date to circle, October 15 is the cautious choice, and October 31 is the outer limit most sources share.
Thanksgiving: The Window Is Narrowing
Thanksgiving falls on November 26 this year, and the early advice has already passed. The Points Guy recommended buying Thanksgiving flights as soon as you can, but no later than Labor Day weekend.[7] If you haven’t booked, don’t panic, but don’t dawdle either.
Google’s historical data gives some breathing room. Google Flights’ analysis has found that Thanksgiving fares have often reached their lowest levels roughly 35 days before departure, with a broader lower-price range of about 24 to 59 days.[2] That would normally make October an important month for Thanksgiving bookings.[2] Those are averages from past years, so this year’s prices could break from the pattern.
Christmas and New Year’s: Aim for Mid-October to Early November
Google’s research suggests Christmas fares bottom out earlier than Thanksgiving ones. Its analysis of 2021 to 2025 airfares puts Christmas fares lowest about 51 days before departure, inside a low zone of 32 to 73 days out.[8] For a December 23 departure, Google’s bottom lands on November 2, 2026.[8]
New Year’s trips run on a tighter clock. The Points Guy recommends locking in New Year’s bookings now or at least by the end of September.[5] That deadline has now arrived, so check those fares today if you haven’t already.
International Trips Need More Lead Time
Overseas flights are pricier and usually need earlier booking. Hopper says Christmas fares are up 23% for Mexico and Central America and up 15% for Europe.[9] Travelers headed to the Middle East, Asia and Oceania should see airfare similar to 2025 levels or slightly lower, per Hopper.[9]
On timing, Google Flights data cited by NerdWallet shows international fares tend to be lowest 49 or more days before departure, which for Christmas travel means booking by very early November.[4] One travel site suggests locking in a long-haul itinerary by mid-October is the safer play.[4] That’s a judgment call from that outlet, though it fits the broader advice to book international trips earlier.
The Cheapest and Priciest Days to Fly
Choosing your travel days can save as much as the booking date. Hopper says Monday, Nov. 23, is the most affordable day to depart, with airfare averaging around $370, about $50 less than flights leaving on Wednesday.[9] If you can’t leave early, departing on Thanksgiving Day averages around $371, per Hopper.[9]
Coming home is the expensive part. Sunday, November 29, is projected to be the most expensive day to return, with average fares reaching $604.[1] For Christmas, the highest prices are expected between Friday, December 18, and Sunday, December 20, with tickets nearing $500.[1] Flying on the holiday itself can also help, since Going estimates that departing on Christmas Eve or New Year’s Day saves 15% to 30% per ticket compared with peak days around them.[4]
Why Waiting for a Deal Is Risky
The fare-drop gamble looks worse than usual this year. Katy Nastro of Going.com told TPG that the worst thing people can do is wait in hopes prices will come down when they are already elevated.[7] Another adviser told HuffPost that holiday flights almost never get cheaper closer to the departure date.[6]
There’s also a hard cutoff to remember. Going notes that many airlines require a 21-day advance purchase for the lowest fares, and booking 20 days out can mean the new lowest fare is $100 to $200 higher.[10] A practical middle path is to set an alert and buy when you see a price you can live with. The Points Guy suggests toggling Google Flights’ “Track prices” feature to get an email when fares change.[5]
Final Thoughts
The evidence points one way. Holiday fares are up sharply, and the best booking window for most domestic trips is closing during October. Circle October 15 as your target, treat Halloween as the last reasonable day, and book international and New Year’s trips as soon as possible.
Averages from past years can’t guarantee this year’s prices, and no single day is a magic booking moment. Still, a fare that fits your budget and schedule is worth locking in before the pre-holiday rush pushes it higher.
